Mobile social networking will also become the hot spot of the smartphone applications. The current text and images to the possible evolution, add video for word to the. Note the following social instant messaging, mobile phone, the bo and so on the new social application is rapidly and has thus of power.
Cell phone future 2-3 years of development, will be smart phone of the world. All trend, will be launched around mobile intelligent. Caught this, caught the points.
At present, smart phones are at the rate of 70% growth. According to the forecast Suppli Enoch, company, smart phone sales plan China over the next three years from now, the 47 million department, growing to 80 million department; While the average price is a few years ago from nearly 4000 yuan, all the way down to 2000 yuan, and still not decline. This shows that 3 G smartphone development has entered a harvest is mature.
A, mobile phone industry structural changes
Observe the future development, we first need to mobile phone standing in that in the context of global structural. Mobile to mobile phone industry development of intelligent brings apparent structural changes, mainly in three aspects: first, the formats from view, industry the focus from manufacturing, to "manufacturing-service" industry transformation; In the second place, from mode to see from the industry chain, integration, the platform to add value-added application pattern evolution; Third, from market to see, selling products, and to sell products and services.
The three change, in a single sentence, is intelligent make handset happened city and the separation of the field. Field, become the focus network effect platform, enterprise through mastery of core technology, and possessed the data network, a fixed society the commanding heights of the natural monopolies; area of investment The city, differentiated into the stage of diversification, enterprise through the innovation and creativity, provide different service and diversified products, a marginal investment as the main application providers of capital, trend perfect competition. Both to the API mechanism formed connection, and the pattern of interests into close to sanqi (panax notoginseng).
The reason that has this kind of situation, the dynamic mechanism and the intelligence behind the characteristics of itself. The so-called smart phone, intelligent, and artificial intelligence and wisdom referred to the earth on actual data of different, is a kind of beautification of the claim. Smart phones, of course, also can to true artificial intelligence and wisdom of the direction, but with existing bandwidth, data mining technology development and business models, not the lagging behind the future 2-3 years can be realized. At least now even the hum a tune, keep the cell phone intelligent identification out the song, it is difficult to smooth do it. The paper pony also couldn't pull the cart. And so on.
So, analysis the last 2-3 years of mobile phone of change, can only focused on the current phase of the condition. At present, the intelligence of the change of the mobile phone brings it, concentrated in the mobile phone business to data from speech, business transformation. The current smartphone essence is data mobile phones. Only mobile phone is not a colloquial data argument, called intelligent better listen to a little of it.
1, from the perspective of losers trend
See the mobile phone industry leading the trend of the manufacturer, see the mobile phone industry development in the future 2-3 years of change. According to the clues, we can cut roughly the:
Recently acquired MOTOROLA mobile, and facing the fate of the takeover nokia, including the association, represent the future development of weakness on the direction of the trend. Its characteristic, is also made the above three aspects of the taboo, the next two to three years will not start.
One is the center of the formats trend.
MOTOROLA and nokia are mobile phone hardware manufacturing industry center of gravity, are not timely transformation to service. This development and the focus from equipment to service apple optimal control. A Personally, I think equipment business want to solve the problem by operators service big ideas, in service under the background of transformation has big problem. Equipment business operators and cooperation on both sides are promoting business, but not solve the problem, they issue industry will be lost together in the cellular market power. At present, there are the service operators of the biggest problems, and to adapt to data services. Equipment business on them, from the strategic, is sand. At present the contradiction in the operator would not positive cases, still cannot see the hope to solve the contradiction of the operators, apple and such is the nature. From this direction, I look forward not believing equipment business operators and in the next two to three years of cooperation.
2 it is the trend of the development mode.
MOTOROLA and nokia, including the association for voice, data after the market to the structural changes, obviously exist strategic oversight role. For MOTOROLA and nokia, it is not adapt to the challenges; Lenovo, it is to lose the opportunity. European mobile phone manufacturer before production mode, is typical of the integration of industry chain operating model, this model to a few years wouldn't change the cell phone is the European and American market for; But it is the fatal flaw, launch innovative varieties of minimum cost is too high (volume production to about ten thousand department or so), not suitable for high growth, income and saturated the market competition in low cost of survival request in 400-only equivalent of 500, MOTOROLA and nokia in the strategy were jammed). But value-added service is different, 400-500, WIDGET program for download, it is perfectly acceptable. Mobile phone hardware function, strengthen, increased again to also fail to catch the s oftware and fashion taste of change. But transformation, about to achieve two changes, from a vertical integration management, to LianFa families this mobile phone software and hardware platform and finished product production of separation, the second is the platform and the mode of open mode value added business separation, the European mobile phone manufacturers have collective suppress dead here, flanked by China and the U.S., could not move.
Lenovo's problems, mainly in the strategy. To understand the channel of the association for selling IT hardware in the stage, stuck in the past successful in the endowment to extricate themselves. Lenovo can't see the data to the essential demands of the business channel in change, also is can't see city and a separate the problem. When LianFa families find lenovo, hope to rewrite the mobile phone industry fortress machine model to the rules of the game, lenovo can't understand this city and completely separate the essence of a strategy and missed the overtaking European mobile phone manufacturer and use double the opportunity of market value; When Google, apple set heavily in data core business, lenovo and not knowing that one business "data" field of the channel, disruptive significance and miss transformation channel, will channel terrace, from the establishment of value-added service of new channel opportunity income.
From this direction look, cell phone future 2-3 years industrial pattern will evolve to make just a predict: American monopoly, China and Europe are relegated to the sidelines. The specific term, us firmly on the control because data core technology advantage and core platform and the market advantages, the big; China a little better than Europe, by mobile phone and sell mobile phone products manufacturing, can have a little head. Europe will appear to the end, this disastrous. Samsung and HTC will play in the United States, as the leading manufacturer had fruit: points.
Three is market development trend.
Now see clearly, American firms in the future mobile phone market advantages, is not only the core technology by master (including standard), and the key is occupied data field, also is the mobile Internet platform, specific mobile platform (including intelligence to apple store, Google mobile engine, etc.).
The domestic market, basically see the channel distributor, mobile phone from it the roughly ambition. Mobile operators is currently own channel, the third party channel, the entity channels and electronic channels such small issues essence or sell products, tangle of path; A country and the problem of and lenovo jingdong mall, forms are different, but the essence is the same, is not doing a channel for service platform will transform the strategic preparation. Because of China's mobile phone a line channel distributor of collective slow, can foresee in the next two to three years, China mobile phone market basic or traditional "sell things" pattern. People will see is multifarious low cost in smart phones, but the industry is not in their hand pair.
Summarized the mobile phone manufacturer market control force movements, think that the United States can difference has completed will channel to sell service from selling products of the strategic shift. Its outstanding strategy innovation and win the key to the future, is a magic weapon will channel transform for the API has data platform; China's current mobile phone channel operators, have not even reached the level of South Korea (with existing channels sell service), and stay in the channel with selling products, the products sell additional service of the stage. Therefore, in the next two to three years, consumers can get national service, also is mainly for the mobile phone hardware experience improve, are nowhere to value-added service itself of the degree of experience improve
As for the Chinese market and consumers is mature or not, I think there is no doubt about that. At present the cell phone market the situation (mainly refers to the equipment business, IT companies, operators), for the Internet enterprise left the chance, because apple beyond mobile phone model is not invulnerable (should say loophole big enough to hold China's listed companies), but not sure no change ideas.
2, the winner from the perspective of the trend
And from the point of view of the winners in the next two to three years of strategic trends.
A is for 4 G, conquers the commanding heights of the standard layout.
The United States currently has a leading manufacturer JianZaiXianShang things, is to control of 4 G technology standards and the fact that standard. The general rule is fighting around patent pool of technology standards established "moat", and then to attack each other to reach a compromise. Google, apple and Microsoft is one of the three leading role. 4 G for the patent on forming a strategic alliance, is the level of conflict.
Note the patent of the war, the focus on communication and hot equipment area, which the protagonist of the patent acquisition, and mainly from Internet company. That does not mean that mobile Internet platform service providers want to monopoly, or in communication pipeline hardware, but by patents, to control standards. But the future mobile standard, range from communication pipeline, the hardware has been so far they have control over the whole industry chain data core business.
China is not made 4 G standard itself, the discourse right can have nothing worry about. From Google, apple and Microsoft's trend, we should get revelation, in the next two to three years, around 4 G patent pool of attack, will become time waits for the urgent work.
2 it is the market structure, lock about open or closed industry path.
Go forth: high in the abdomen is. At present general mobile phone manufacturer competition, are in pursuit of the eyes, but Google and apple utilitarian the focus of competition, but in determining the market structure. Through the identification of market structure, decided to smart phones the industrial chain of the rules of the game. But the future 2-3 years, it is the smart phone market structure of the forming stage.
Smart phone market structure is different from the general market, is a special kind of monopolistic competition structure. The so-called special, it is to point to the monopoly and competition, is not as ZhangBoLun standard theory that the integration of markets, but monopoly form a layer of structure (in a flat, paid) competition form a layer of structure (in application) party, become a monopoly of the structure of the complex structure and competition. The API is two kinds of structure of the transit hub. This is the history of the unprecedented market competition situation. Domestic operators generally easy to misread the market structure, with the train of thought of perfect competition, through the price war, rushed into the way. The results would be in a classic potter dilemma: difficult to give consideration to the cost lead and different profits. Superior to the United States speaking, this kind of mistakes won't happen. Google and apple's strategy, the smart pho ne market in the monopolistic competition structure, have a high level of consensus; Difference between actual is natural monopoly (monopoly) and how to deal with the structural relationship between competition.
According to Google's open ideas, such as the mobile platform (engine) should be based on open source, should not be in infrastructure, platform software, this charge and cloud computing and the overall thinking is consistent, and manufacturing to service, including the service industry itself to upgrade the thinking of the coherence of the upgrade is. But apple and Microsoft's ideas, but not the place of coherence. For apple,, on the one hand, the opening of the limited (refers to the platform and development tools open) has brought him obvious benefits and the result, but on the other hand, use of patent licensing fees and the possible, and strong lure him. And apple don't like Google and Microsoft, does not face on the mobile phone hardware "the allied troops", so his most conditions along the hardware and software integration in the direction of the route to close close. The only contain the power of him to do so, is the whole industry chain is not listening to his com mand, rely on IPHONE 4 G series and could not. Note the instead, when apple to cloud computing the road, he will not borrow after to the control of the clouds and resume its inherent in the closing of the genetic factors, in smartphone redo Macintosh dream. But if so, no jobs for apple may be fatal. Comprehensive consideration, apple in the next two to three years will enter the first rat on both ends of the strategic choice for the period. Microsoft has doomed would not give up the train of thought of software license fees, it took the edge off his service fees including "cloud" quantity. In the next two to three years, he may purchase nokia smart phones, become in the field of industrial chain, but nokia all operators are not Intel, has itself NiPuSa across the river itself, never with Microsoft a across the river, only can touch a stone is a stone, no ChengSuan.
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